It has been previously discussed here that jumping onto the hot rookies in Fantasy Football can be a draft killing mistake. If so, then why a post about the top rookie RB’s?  There are always exceptions to every rule, and an analysis of the rookies in the 2010 class can help determine if there are any exceptions this year. Part of sound Fantasy Football draft advice and strategy is to look at every angle and re-evaluate and test your assumptions.

Being able to determine which rookies are the exceptions to the general rookie rule can be the difference between ending the season looking like a draft day genius from your playoff bye week or sitting at home watching the playoffs on TV.

Here is an analysis of the Top 5 rookie running backs, as well as a few others that could make things interesting.

1. Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers

This Fresno State superstar lands in the NFL in a great spot from which he can expect to find rookie success. It is hard to imagine a rookie runner coming into a more favorable situation than Mathews current spot.  San Diego has a balanced offense with an established QB and passing game and the incumbent (Darren Sproles) has an unimpressive if decent record and can be a third down back if needed to spell Mathews.

The Chargers made it clear with the departure of LT in the offseason and the selection of Mathews that they were looking for a new number one back and may have found that person with Mathews who they used a high draft pick to acquire.

Coach Norv Turner has indicated he expects Mathews to see touches immediately in both the running and passing game.  If he becomes the feature back in this strong offense as it appears he will at least get the chance to do, then he may be one of the players that defy the typical low expectations set for rookie starters. He can realistically be expected to be the featured back and to get the goal line carries in this offense. That is a high reward rookie to take a chance on.

2. Ben Tate, Houston Texans

Ben Tate is another rookie who finds himself in a good position to succeed in his first year.

While he will have some existing competition with Steve Slaton, his 2009 campaign showed that he wasn’t ready to be a full time NFL starter. At a worst case, expect to see a running back by committee situation early on with Tate taking over carries if he has early success and Slaton being more of a change of pace back.

Tate has a good combination of both speed and size and has solid blocking fundamentals. The early reports say that he is a good all around back who can find the end zone and has good explosion through the gaps.

Watch the battle in camp and pre-season with Steve Slaton to get a better read on the touches that Tate may expect,  but expect him to surprise by mid season.

3. Jahvid Best, Detroit Lions

With Kevin Smith recovering from a major knee injury and the other back being Maurice Morris, Best has a decent opportunity for serious playing time in 2010.

Best brings some significant injury concerns with him as he had three surgeries and a serious concussion during his time with the Cal Bears, but he also carries a ton of upside. He is an all around back with both running and pass catching ability. He has more speed than power which will hurt him in short yardage goal line situations which may be a concern.

Expect to see Best start off receiving 12-15 touches per game, both rushing and receiving. If he has success, or Smith isn’t back to 2009 form, his touches could increase. He does however play for the Detroit Lions who have a recent record of futility that is astounding. The 2010 Lions should be a much improved team, with a decent balance to their attack, and with Calvin Johnson they have a credible receiving threat. If Matthew Stafford can show some growth at QB and provide some passing threat with Johnson, then it will open up lanes for Best and his slashing open field style.

Best has a good opportunity to start and get significant touches for a team that hopes to put a recent past of futility behind them. If Stafford can get some rhythm with his receivers, Best could have some nice weeks this season.

4. C.J. Spiller, Buffalo Bills

Buffalo selected Spiller at #9 overall, so they want to see some return on this early draft pick, but the likely committee approach with Fred Jackson makes this one a tougher call from a fantasy perspective.

It seems likely that we will see Spiller in a season long timeshare with Jackson which will seriously diminish his fantasy value.  Add to this detriment the fact that the Bills still have a lot of areas to improve on the offensive side including the offensive line and the issue becomes more clear for fantasy owners. In a not exciting Buffalo offense, Spiller may make the most of his likely 10-15 touches per game and become a credible flex or bye week caliber player in 2010, but his best years lie ahead and he is advisable to slide up this list only in dynasty or keeper leagues.

Note: Be aware that Spiller is already drawing comparisons to this year’s consensus #1 pick Chris Johnson with a similar frame and blazing speed.  If someone is investing in the Bills backfield and wants to take both Spiller and Jackson, or to select Spiller as possible starter in case of injury to Jackson, then this would be a reasonable draft approach. Spiller is a difficult player to value, and these options could move him as high as two on this list depending on your evaluation of Fred Jackson’s impact on his playing time.

5. Montario Hardesty, Cleveland Browns

Hardesty joins a struggling Cleveland team that looked like it may have found its starter in Jerome Harrison after he had some late season success in 2009. Those appearances may have been fleeting since the browns invested a 2^nd round pick in Hardesty and he should get plenty of touches this season, even with Harrsion present. If Harrison goes down with an injury or doesn’t produce, expect Hardesty to get more touches.

Harrsion performed adequately in 2009, but not exceptionally. The team will likely start out in a time share situation but Hardesty’s size and speed should help his case. Hardesty is one of my top prospects to take over a starting job by mid season.

Granted, that this starting role is on an anemic Cleveland Brown’s offensive unit, so even though he will see the field, expect some similar problems to Spiller as he is on a weaker offense with below average skill players. There are also some nasty looking rush defenses on the schedule, so temper expectations for Hardesty. Be aware that he had some injuries at Tennessee, so there is some injury risk, but that doesn’t appear to be a significant concern now.

Other notables:

Toby Gerhart, Minnesota Vikings

Chester Taylor, who was the handcuff for Adrian Peterson last year, will be in Chicago in 2010. Look for Gerhart to move into Taylor’s old role in 2010.

Granted, this doesn’t look like an extremely promising opportunity, and it’s not a suggestion for a high draft pick, but Gerhart should be considered as worthy draft insurance for any Peterson owners. And in the event of a Peterson injury, Gerhart could fill in and become fantasy relevant as a starter behind a good Minnesota Vikings offensive line.  But as long as Peterson stays healthy, he won’t make a significant impact.

Dexter McCluster, Kansas City Chiefs
Possibly sharing carries with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones on the Kansas City Chiefs isn’t exactly a recipe foe rookie success.  A skilled runner, McCluster will spend a lot of time hoping for carries on this team. If there is a great camp performance, or if Charles or Jones sustain an injury, then McCluster would rise in value, but otherwise keep him on the fantasy bench until you see a reason to add him from waivers.

LeGarrette Blount, Tennessee Titans
An undrafted rookie, you may wonder why he even appears on this list. Mainly because with the departure of Lendale White, he may become the next Lendale White. This means possibly vulturing a couple of Chris Johnson’s short TD’s or getting some garbage time carries when CJ is resting. Tennessee will have to rest Johnson more in 2010 than they did in 2009 or risk running him into an injury as he carried a very heavy workload last season.

Now you have some rookies that you can consider on draft day. Using this fantasy football advice on drafting rookies, where will you be targeting a rookie for your team? Or will you draft any at all? Let us know in the comments.

A trend that has grown in popularity in recent years is using a high draft pick on a QB instead of a top RB. This phenomenon had been brewing for a while, with someone always seeming to reach for Peyton Manning a little too early, but exploded in the season following New England’s undefeated regular season and Tom Brady’s accompanying outrageous stat lines. In that case, there is no doubt that the arm of Brady propelled many teams to victory, but his season turned out to be almost one of a kind.

If I may digress quickly and add a personal footnote, I will find it a pleasure to discuss the Fantasy Super Bowl the year of  Brady’s dominance. In that game, the team with Brady who had won the regular season championship and sailed through the playoffs found themselves facing The Legend’s team who was championed by none other than the great David Garrard…. wait a minute. How was that even possible, how could that matchup even be fair? The general consensus was that The Legend was coming in 2nd place that year, but because of the tremendous RB (and other position) depth on our team, we not only defeated, but dominated the championship game. Score one in real life for QB by committee.

So, what does that mean? QB by committee relates to drafting 2 or 3 mid level qb’s in later rounds and swapping the starter out each week  based on matchups. The name comes from the Running back by Committee (RBBC) approach popularized in real life NFL football by coaches such as Mike Shanahan. What you will be doing while the rest of the league is reaching with early round picks on QB’s is building quality RB depth and targeting a couple of solid WR’s instead. After 6 rounds of drafting, this approach would usually find you with 4 RB’s and 2 WR’s or 3 RB’s and 3 WR’s depending on who was available. As always, there are possible exceptions, so if for some reason, Aaron Rodgers or Drew Brees slip to the 4th round in your draft, then a modification could be endorsed.

You may be thinking that there is no way that you can wait until the picks of 70-100 to draft your QB because no one will be left. Well, if you want so called name QB talent, then that would be correct. However, if you are ready to ride to battle with QB by committee, then you could be looking at Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb, Eli Manning, Carson Palmer, or Brett Favre in anywhere between rounds 7-10. Later, Vince Young, Alex Smith, Mark Sanchez, Chad Henne, Kyle Orton, or Matt Hasseleck can be picked up in rounds 11-13. A combination of two or three of these guys combined with an aggressive pickup strategy can give you a matchup play each week and allow you to build quality depth on the rest of your team.

I know, it sounds a little scary to think about facing a team with Peyton Manning when you are suiting up the other Manning (Eli), but it is a winning strategy in Fantasy Football play. Remember the case of David Garrard versus Tom Brady if you need inspiration.

As a final word of encouragement, The Legend went to war each week in one league last year with the dynamic duo of Kyle Orton and Carson Palmer. Not exactly striking fear in the opponent’s heart when you see that across the field from you right?  That team lost only 2 games and won the regular season title outright by 3 games.

Let us know your thoughts in the comments? When do you target a QB in the draft?

In addition to my normal real life leagues with long term owners I like to play in 2 or 3 public leagues using Fanball public leagues. One of the reasons is that this way I have another 2 or 3 smaller scale leagues that I can play in and get some extra fulfillment for my Fantasy Football needs!

But the other valuable reason that I like doing this is that I have found that doing some public league drafts like this prior to my more important (and higher stakes) league drafts allows me to get a feel for how players are being valued and who may be available at certain positions and certain rounds. This kind of research can help you avoid draft errors since you will have a couple of previous drafts under your belt to analyze.

The reason I like Fanball for this is that you have to pay a small fee to play ($10 smallest entry, but there are also prizes for winners). Any other site with an entry fee would work as well. The reason I like not using free public leagues for this is that I have found that free public leagues tend to often times attract some players who will abandon their teams mid season or draft their teams on auto draft which doesn’t help you for analysis. If you have any skin in the game, then you would want to at least try to show up and draft a decent team even if there wasn’t strong regular season management.

One additional note. I have mentioned in a previous post that I am not a big fan of Fanball’s Commissioner league management tool. We just haven’t had a great experience with it in our leagues. However, I haven’t noticed those same problems in their public “Draft N Play” leagues.

Getting a couple of drafts under your belt through public leagues requiring an entry fee are good training methods to get a feel for player value and position prior to drafting in your more serious or competitive leagues. And they also represent another league to play in and possibly claim an additional championship in.

What do you think? Does anyone have another pre-draft prep suggestion?

Most standard fantasy football draft advice starts out by focusing on taking top quality RB’s as the core of your team. This is the strategy adhered to and promoted by The Legend as well.
In recent years, as the phenomena of “RB by committee” has become more popular with real life NFL teams some other draft strategies have started to become more popular. One of these is to go “WR-WR” with your first two picks instead of the standard “RB-RB” that I subscribe to. This new draft strategy is usually referred to as “Doing the opposite.”
If you follow this strategy, it is very likely you will end up with two star WR’s on your team. Having both Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald on your team is [...]

“That first round pick was the hottest thing ever in college. He ran/passed/caught for more yards than anybody. He can’t miss in the NFL and I am going to snap him up ASAP.”
Please don’t be the owner who says the above as part of your draft strategy. While the occasional rookie RB or WR who has had a great training camp and plays for at least a decent team can be worth a pick at some point, do not reach for them too early. The transition from college to NFL is a massive one. This is especially true for QB’s. If you draft a rookie QB expecting him to be your fantasy starter, then you will lose a lot of games.
Another mistake that is always [...]

When building your team in the draft and moving to select a 2nd or 3rd (or 4th) skill position player something to watch out for is the bye week of the players involved.  While having two RB’s with the same bye week isn’t necessarily a season-ending prospect, making sure that it is recognized and compensated for later in the draft is key.  The problem with ignoring bye weeks is twofold.  First, as mentioned, you could have two key starters with the same bye week that seriously hinders the ability to compete that week of the season.  This is not reason in itself not to draft a player, but must be recognized. Second, when talking about a position such as TE where you may only carry [...]

Having a top skill player from your favorite team can exponentially enhance the pleasure of participating in fantasy football. A Titans fan with Chris Johnson or a Colts fan with Peyton Manning will have double the opportunity to enjoy their Sunday football experience.
But it is possible to have too much of a good thing. Going for a double down by having both Carson Palmer and Chad Ochocinco if you are a Bengals fan could make sense, but be very cautious. In this scenario, you at least have chosen two starters on a good team capable of putting up points. What you don’t do is stock up on an entire team and have the starting QB, RB, the 2nd WR, and kicker from your favorite team. [...]

It’s draft day and the excitement is high. Maybe you have opened your cold drink of choice and are anticipating your first pick. You have sketched out a few players to target based on your first few picks, and all is good in the world.
Don’t destroy your draft and commit this rookie mistake that will ruin what could have been a great start to your fantasy season. What mistake? Some owners draft to fill out their entire “starting roster” first before moving to backups and position depth at the high value skill positions.
For example, this owner would not take three running backs in a row in a league that starts only two running backs. Someone who makes this mistake will draft two RB’s, a QB, [...]

This post can be considered a prequel to the upcoming rookie mistakes series of posts, but I wanted to address kickers in their own post. So, what are the draft secrets for kickers in Fantasy Football? …
Take one with your last pick. Repeat. Tale one with your last pick. That sums up 95% of this successful draft strategy. Don’t take a kicker early. If for some reason such as transaction fees or pickup cutoffs it makes sense to hold two kickers in your league, then draft them with your last two picks.
Use the rounds when your opposing owners are trying to stock up on last year’s high scoring kickers to grab some sleepers, promising rookies, or midlevel skill positions for bye week or injury coverage.
Predicting [...]